5 keys to playing the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1

5 keys to playing the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

When Authentic won the 2020 Kentucky Derby, he became the third horse since 2014 that was part of Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1 to do so. He joined American Pharaoh and Nyquist, who were victorious in the Run for the Roses in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Authentic was far less accomplished last year than those two stakes winners when pool 1 wagering occurred over the Thanksgiving holiday in 2019. At that time, the Bob Baffert trainee had only a debut Nov. 9 maiden special weight victory at Del Mar to his credit.

[RELATED: Odds set for 2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager]

In 2019, the Kentucky Derby Future Wager could have been very good to Bob Baffert loyalists who might have combined his four horses that were part of pool 1 with an already well accomplished 2-year-old like Tiz the Law. But out of those four Baffert representatives, only Authentic made it to the Derby.

The results were that pool 1 wagers on the 50-1 Authentic paid $103.60 to win and a $2 exacta with Tiz the Law, which on Derby Day included the third choice and the favorite, returned $3,959.

Baffert has only two horses among the 22 individual betting interests in pool 1 this year. Life is Good, who was a sensational maiden winner at Del Mar last weekend, is listed at 15-1 on the morning line but is likely to contest the unbeaten Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Essential Quality for favoritism in this first Future Wager.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1, which features $2 Win and Exacta wagering, opens Thursday at noon and will close Sunday at 6 p.m. ET.

Here are five keys to help with your KDFW Pool 1 wagers.

1) It is a long journey from Pool 1 to the Derby starting gate.

For the 2020 Derby, only four of the individual betting interests from pool 1 made it to the Derby, with Authentic leading the way. He was followed by Tiz the Law (second), Honor A. P. (fourth) and Storm the Court (sixth).

For the 2019 Derby, five pool 1 runners got to the first Saturday in May, including the second-place finisher, Code of Honor. He was followed by Improbable (fourth), Game Winner (fifth), Vekoma (12th) and Roadster (15th).

2) The “All Others” betting interest will be a heavy favorite.

in the last six years, the mutuel field bet or #24, “All Others,” has been the overwhelming favorite, with the shortest price individual far higher in odds. In 2020, All Others was 1-1 and Tiz the Law was 11-1. 2019 — All Others 6-5, Game Winner 5-1. 2018 — All Others 6-5, Bolt d’Oro 7-1. 2017 — All Others 6-5, Classic Empire 6-1. 2016 — All Others 3-5, Nyquist 9-1. 2015 — All Others 3-5, Dortmund 9-1. 2014 — All Others 4-5, New Year’s Day 15-1.

3) Should I use All Others in my Pool 1 exacta wagers?

The favored All Others betting interest has been part of the KDFW Pool 1 exacta in five of the last seven years, and those payoffs have been relatively modest.

In 2019, Country House (All Others) with Code of Honor paid $109.40.

In 2018, Justify (All Others) with Good Magic paid $52.40.

In 2017, Always Dreaming (All Others) with Lookin At Lee paid $161.80.

In 2015, American Pharoah with Firing Line (All Others) paid $58.00.

In 2014, California Chrome (All Others) with Candy Boy paid $203.00.

4) What did we learn from Authentic’s Derby victory?

Looking back on the extended 2020 Kentucky Derby trail, it is hard to believe that Authentic could have been 50-1 in Pool 1. Clearly, this shows that the best strategy for betting the Future Wager this weekend is to bet only on long shots.

5) Long shots to consider for your Pool 1 wagers.

#10 – King Fury [ML 50-1] – This son of Curlin sold for $950,000 as a yearling, which is unusual for trainer Kenny McPeek. In four starts, he has two wins — a debut win and a victory in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs. Interestingly, both of his losses were at Keeneland. He is listed as probable for this weekend’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill, and a victory in that race certainly would strengthen his credentials but would significantly lower his odds in Pool 1.

#14 – Red Flag [ML 30-1] – Trainer John Shirreffs appears to have another serious Derby contender this year with this son of Tamarkuz, who is owned by Jerry Moss of Zenyatta fame. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita in October and then came back to win the Bob Hope Stakes convincingly at Del Mar.

#20 – Speaker’s Corner [50-1] – The Godolphin homebred son of Street Sense was third in his debut at Saratoga for Bill Mott. He returned to get that first victory going seven furlongs at Belmont Park over Caddo River, who is also part of Pool 1. Mott is likely to be focused on getting Godolphin its first Derby win.

Meet Matt Shifman

Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011 and currently is a Senior Writer. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs, Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing

Matt has been a co-host of the popular weekly video show HorseCenter for many years.

Since 2012, Matt has been a voter in the NTRA weekly polls for the Top Thoroughbred and Top Three-Year-Old.

Matt is also a partner in the New York Hot List handicapping service @NYHotList where he handicaps the races on the NYRA circuit everyday. The Hot List picks are available at several ADW sites around the country.

You may also know Matt by his Twitter, Facebook, and HRN screen nameAndyScoggin.

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